Economic Resilience Of Mexico
This unexpected 0.7% growth in the second quarter challenges our recent cautious stance on Mexico. The market was positioned for a slight contraction, so this positive surprise will likely force a quick reevaluation of Mexican assets. We must now adjust our strategies to reflect this newfound economic resilience. We anticipate a rally in the Mexican Peso, which had softened to around 18.50 per dollar earlier this month amid recession fears. This strong GDP figure could push it back towards the 17.80 level we saw earlier in the year. Traders might consider long positions on MXN futures or buying call options on peso-tracking ETFs. For the IPC index, which has been hovering near 54,000 points, we could see a break to the upside. The surprise nature of this data will likely cause a spike in implied volatility, making options strategies more interesting. We are looking at buying call options on the index to capture potential short-term gains. This stronger-than-expected economy complicates the picture for Banxico’s next policy meeting in August. While inflation remained sticky at 5.5% in June, this growth data gives the central bank less reason to cut its 11.75% policy rate soon. This creates uncertainty, which is something we can trade through straddles or strangles on rate-sensitive stocks.Bắt đầu giao dịch ngay bây giờ — nhấp vào đây để tạo tài khoản VT Markets trực tiếp của bạn.