WTI crude oil has reclaimed the $61.00 mark, trading within a narrow range between the 10-day and 20-day SMA. This rebound helped erase Thursday’s losses with WTI oil trading 1.20% higher, turning the $61.00 psychological resistance into support. Recently, WTI experienced a decline but avoided dropping below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 60.588, providing temporary relief. The 20-day SMA is positioned at 60.419, while the 10-day SMA offers resistance near 61.805. The Relative Strength Index stands at 49.00, suggesting neutral momentum.

Key Price Levels And Technical Indicators

For prices to rise further, a breach above the 10-day SMA and the $62.00 barrier is necessary, potentially leading to higher targets such as the 50-day SMA at 63.270. Conversely, a drop below 60.588 could bring targets like the April low of 58.376 into focus. WTI, a high-quality oil sourced from the United States, is influenced by supply and demand, global growth, political events, and OPEC decisions. Weekly inventory data from API and EIA also impact prices. OPEC controls production quotas, affecting supply and prices, with OPEC+ including additional members like Russia.

Market Influences And Risk Management

The Relative Strength Index, on 49.00, tells us there’s no clear momentum tilt. It isn’t stretched to the downside but shows no pressure from buyers either. We’re in a holding pattern. That’s why a confirmed break above the 10-day moving average and the $62.00 figure would open up known technical areas — especially the 50-day moving average at 63.270 — as potential zones to scale moves toward. The path higher remains conditional on pushing through those levels. But there’s risk if price turns lower. A drop below the 60.588 Fibonacci level would leave the door ajar to test the April low near 58.376, which had previously stopped deeper declines. These are numbers that traders often watch closely, not because they are magical, but because others do too. The self-fulfilling nature of technical levels makes them valuable tools, though not perfect. Stepping back, the drivers behind oil pricing extend well beyond charts. Market participants have long known that fundamental factors such as industrial demand, shipping activity, production output, and refinery throughput play large roles — and right now, each is fogged with uncertainty. Inventories reported weekly by the API and EIA help gauge surplus or shortfall, and even small surprises in those figures can shift prices in unpredictable fashion. It’s not always the data itself, but how far off it comes compared to expectations, that really moves things. Production controls remain influential, especially when OPEC and other aligned producers — including Moscow’s circle — decide to cut or add supply. These shifts often catch short-term traders off guard if they haven’t hedged appropriately or adjusted for macro headlines.

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