MUFG comments on the Federal Reserve’s adjusted stance, suggesting a possible rate cut as soon as next month. This follows Powell’s acknowledgment of risks to employment, possibly leading to layoffs, and how a weak September jobs report could trigger these rate cuts. This shift could lead to a lower dollar as policy divergence becomes more apparent, with other central banks currently less dovish. The ECB and BOE are unlikely to cut rates further this year due to stable growth and ongoing price pressures. Meanwhile, speculation is growing that the BOJ might resume rate hikes by the year’s end. Regarding USD/JPY, MUFG notes a positioning angle. Recent IMM data indicates that leveraged funds have been increasing JPY short positions. This stretched positioning could present an opportunity to short the pair given the current policy differences. We believe Fed Chair Powell’s recent comments have opened the door for a rate cut as early as next month. His focus has clearly shifted to the downside risks in the job market, acknowledging that layoffs could be on the horizon. A soft jobs report for September would likely be the final trigger needed for the Fed to begin easing policy in October. This anticipated pivot is setting up the next major down leg for the U.S. dollar, especially as the policy gap with other central banks widens. The latest U.S. CPI data from July 2025 showed inflation holding steady at 2.8%, giving the Fed more room to focus on the cooling labor market, which saw non-farm payrolls add only 95,000 jobs. This contrasts sharply with monetary policy elsewhere. For instance, we see little chance of the European Central Bank or the Bank of England cutting rates further in 2025. Eurozone inflation recently ticked up to 3.1%, and UK wage growth remains stubbornly high at 4.5%, meaning their fight against price pressures is not over. This divergence should continue to weigh on the dollar against the euro and sterling. Meanwhile, speculation is growing that the Bank of Japan could deliver another rate hike by the end of the year. With Japanese inflation now consistently holding above the 2% target, the BOJ is under pressure to continue its policy normalization. This creates a compelling case for yen strength in the medium term. Looking at USD/JPY, we see a significant positioning opportunity for derivative traders. The latest data shows speculative funds have rebuilt their JPY short positions to over 120,000 contracts, a level of crowdedness we have not seen since late 2024. This stretched positioning makes the pair vulnerable to a sharp reversal, presenting a clear opportunity to establish short positions through options or futures.

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