Số đơn xin trợ cấp thất nghiệp ban đầu tại Mỹ đạt 226.000, cao hơn mong đợi, duy trì lo ngại về sự yếu kém của thị trường lao động.

    by VT Markets
    /
    Aug 8, 2025
    US initial jobless claims were recently reported at 226,000, surpassing the anticipated 221,000. The previous figure was adjusted upwards, from 218,000 to 219,000. Continuing claims reached 1,974,000, exceeding the predicted 1,950,000. The earlier number was revised downwards, from 1,946,000 to 1,936,000.

    Dấu Hiệu Căng Thẳng Kinh Tế

    These numbers point to some pressure within the labour market, with continuing claims hitting a new cycle high. Despite this, the data does not entirely allay worries about labour market weakness, leaving the door open for potential rate cuts. The latest jobless claims data shows the labor market is continuing its gradual cooling. We see continuing claims reaching a new cycle high, a clear sign of some economic stress. This softening is not severe, but it strengthens the argument for a Federal Reserve rate cut in the coming months. With the Fed having held its key interest rate in the 4.75% to 5.00% range for over a year, this labor data is a critical piece of the puzzle. The most recent July inflation report came in at a manageable 2.8%, meaning the Fed now has more room to react to a weakening economy. This makes incoming labor figures the main driver for market expectations.

    Ý Nghĩa Thị Trường

    This environment suggests traders should consider derivatives that profit from falling interest rates. We are likely to see more interest in call options on Treasury bond ETFs, as bond prices rise when rates fall. Traders could also position for a steeper yield curve, betting that short-term rates will drop more quickly than long-term ones. For the stock market, the situation creates uncertainty and is a recipe for volatility. The prospect of rate cuts is supportive for equities, but the reality of a weaker job market could limit any gains. This makes strategies like buying VIX call options attractive as a hedge against a sudden downturn.

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