MBA mortgage applications in the United States decreased to -2% for the week ending March 21, recovering from the previous figure of -6.2%. In Forex, EUR/USD was under pressure, hitting three-week lows near 1.0750 due to anticipated US tariffs on the European Union. GBP/USD retraced to two-week lows around 1.2870 as the US dollar gained strength. Gold remained stable just above $3,000, supported by positive sentiment in the commodities market. Bitcoin held steady at $87,000 as traders prepared for potential market fluctuations related to upcoming tariff announcements. Additionally, UK services inflation appears influenced by an expected rise in employer National Insurance.

Mortgage Applications And Interest Rate Sensitivity

The dip in weekly MBA mortgage applications from -6.2% to -2% suggests that although there’s been a modest rebound in demand for home loans in the United States, interest remains soft overall. Applications, which typically reflect interest rate sensitivity and broader consumer confidence, continue to indicate a sluggish pace. For those watching rate-sensitive sectors, this is a clear sign that buyers are hesitating, probably in response to tighter lending conditions and uncertainty around future rate cuts or hikes. Meanwhile, in the currency markets, EUR/USD slipped to near 1.0750, touching three-week lows. This likely stems from emerging concerns over pending US tariffs aimed at European exports. Traders have begun to recalibrate expectations, positioning around growing trade friction. This sudden shift in euro sentiment is more than just noise—it illustrates how direct policy cues from Washington can swiftly drive safe-haven flows into the dollar. If tensions do deepen, broad-based euro selling may persist or even accelerate. Sterling also pulled back, revisiting levels near 1.2870. The weakness wasn’t driven by anything UK-specific but rather by dollar strength across major pairs. We’ve seen this pattern before: world currencies treading water or weakening as the dollar regains the upper hand, typically following hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric or rising market yields. So long as these themes persist, pressure on dollar counterparts isn’t likely to ease. Gold, holding steady above $3,000, reflects how commodities are leaning on broader investor sentiment rather than just inflation hedging or geopolitical concerns. It’s not the price level alone that fascinates us but its behaviour—flat performance amid currency weakness and market jitters indicates that traders are reluctant to reallocate capital aggressively. They’re holding their ground for now, waiting for a clearer catalyst.

Bitcoin And Market Sentiment

Bitcoin, too, is unmoved at $87,000. Digital assets frequently trade on emotion and momentum, but recent tight ranges point to unusual restraint. The expected shift in fiscal and trade policies may be causing hesitation, rather than excitement. That lull often leads to sharp, sudden moves once clarity emerges. The bigger story might be what isn’t happening—there’s been no breakout, despite what feels like ample reasons for volatility. As for UK services inflation, the anticipated bump in employer National Insurance has quietly added cost pressure. This is not a surprise—it’s consistent with past responses to tax-related input cost changes. When businesses see expenses rise, it typically filters into their service pricing. This presents another layer for future rate expectations from the Bank of England. The knock-on effect of such inflationary triggers can be prolonged, especially when coupled with sticky wage growth.

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